USDA Outlook Forum releases bearish numbers for 24/25

Overnight- Corn and soybean futures finished near unchanged in the overnight session. Wheat continues to move lower. We may be dealing with light volume today with a 3-day weekend on tap.

USDA Outlook Forum- Bigger carryouts and lower price.

Corn- 91 million acres (-3.64) & 181.0 yield (+3.7) with a 150 million bushel bump in usage = 2.532 bbu carry out (17.2% S to U).

Soybeans- 87.5 million acres (+3.9) & 52 yield (+1.4) and only 43 million bushels rise in demand = 435 mbu carryout (9.9% S to U).

Corn stocks to use number is highest since 2005/2006.

Corn acres look low.

Soybeans are not as worrisome unless we add acres into planting but X24 soybeans were leading the way down yesterday

January soybean crush was the 5th monthly record in a row.

Crush pace is 4.6% higher than last year vs USDA current 3.5% yearly increase.

USDA looks conservative on crush for next year.

Bottomline

There was nothing bullish about those carryouts and the funds continue to pile on, but crush is still printing monthly usage records and ethanol grind continues to roll along as do corn exports. This will bring down this year’s carry in numbers so all in not lost and prices are not going to zero. Watch 4.11 & 11.60 for first support. NFC Grain Comments Options -2.16.24