Planting progress hovering around averages

Overnight- Wheat led the way lower with soybeans and corn following.

Last week’s crop progress had 83% of the corn crop planted and 68% of the soybean crop. We are within spitting distance of both the 5 year and 10 year average for both.

You can make arguments that crops have been “mudded in” or planted in far from ideal conditions which will take the top end off of yield. We think top end will be around 178 which will still be record but we can take 180+ off the table for now.

We doubt the USDA will make any real changes on the June WADSE so the focus will be on weather, and the acres report at the end of June.

US corn is competitive well into the fall right now and depending on how the Safrina crop finishes we could see good export business through the summer.

Bottomline

Right in front of us, it looks like corn will be more supported by the current fundamentals. Concerns about the soybeans adding acres as we move planting into June and with the lackluster demand on that balance sheet has the market nervous. Don’t be afraid to sell bounces in the soybeans while you can be a little patient with corn but watch the 200 day at 492.5 in December as it has been a stopper. NFC Grain Comments Options -new (57)

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