March WASDE and a higher $

Today we will get some “fresh” data from the USDA via the March WASDE report. I emphasize the fresh because the March report is usually uneventful and the big cuts that should come out of the Argentina production have been well publicized. Domestic balance sheets will likely show a little higher corn carryout due to lower exports and a mostly unchanged soybean carryout. The world stockpiles for corn and soybeans will likely shrink due to cuts in Argentina production. Fed chair Powell’s testimony in front of Congress yesterday was quite hawkish. He said recent economic data was surprisingly positive and that there is more work to do. Translation is more rate hikes to come and possibly keeping rates higher for longer.

This caused the USD to rally 1.20 to move back over 105.50. This creates more of a drag on US exports, and some expect the USD to challenge the November highs. For today, we will use 6.30 & 15.15 for support and 6.40 & 15.32 for resistance. NFC Grain Comments Options -3.8.23