Grain Market Morning Comments: March 30, 2020

Corn is slightly lower this morning while soybeans and wheat are higher which is the way we finished on Friday. Soybeans are higher on South America logistical issues dealing with Covid-19. Wheat is higher as world stocks tighten due to logistics and some countries cutting exports. We have quarterly stocks and prospective plantings tomorrow. Estimates for acres are holding steady with Ag Outlook numbers. 94 million for corn, 85 for soybeans and 45 for wheat. Stocks estimated at 8.134 billion corn, 2.228 billion beans and 1.43 billion wheat. It is doubtful these numbers reflect the issues the have come up the last month and will be a moving target the next 2 to 3 months. Funds sold corn and bought soybeans and wheat which fit the price moves we saw.

Today’s Corn Outlook: Corn settled 2.75 cents lower on Friday to finish the week up 2.25. Funds were big sellers in the last report shorting 16K contracts to push net shorts to 108,549. We will see what the USDA has to tell us tomorrow but numbers will continue to shift as producers figure out their best steps to deal with price and outside issues.

May Corn Technicals: The corn market is bearish territory and continues to blow thru technical support. A close under 3.35 ½ will open up 3.18 on the downside. Bulls need to see a close over 3.55.

Today’s Soybean Outlook: Beans settled 1.25 cents higher on Friday and gained another 6 cents overnight. Soybeans finished last week up 15.25 cents on strong demand for bean meal and logistical question in South America. The way Argentina and Brazil handle their outbreaks could greatly benefit US soybean exports if they become gridlocked and unable to move soybeans out of port. Stories are floating that Argentina crushers are low on soybeans due to transportation bottlenecks.

May Soybean Technicals: The soybeans are short term bullish and a close above 8.90 will open up a challenge of 9.00 and 9.10. Bears need a close under 8.61. Exports: 285K soybeans to Mexico.

Weather: Delta still wet while S. Midwest is drying. Brazil has limited rains the next 2 weeks as stress will build while Argy is in good shape with more rains forecasted this week.

Dollar Index: The dollar is trading 80 ticks higher this morning at 99.34. Brazilian Real: The Real is trading 34 ticks lower this morning at 19.40.

 

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