Black Sea Wheat Estimates Decline


Revised Estimates: Recent forecasts for Russia’s wheat production have been revised downward, potentially impacting global prices. Commodity Insights cut its estimate by 5.6 million metric tons (MMT) to 85 MMT, and Russia’s Institute of Agricultural Market Studies lowered its projection to 83.5 MMT.

Global Price Alert: A production level below 80 MMT could disrupt global prices and export capabilities. This situation calls for immediate attention and action.


Lower Production Expected: Ukraine’s wheat production is expected to decline due to lower planting areas despite favorable weather conditions in some regions.

Yield Estimates: Yields are estimated at 4.6 t/hectare, above the five-year average.

Export Volume Impact: Ukraine’s total exportable volume is projected to decrease to 13.5 MMT, a significant drop from 17.5 MMT in the previous marketing year. This potential decrease in export volume could signal notable changes in the global wheat market, necessitating adaptation and strategic planning.


Uncertain Outlook: While initial estimates for Romania’s wheat production were in line with last season’s at 10.6 MMT, the dry weather in April and May has raised significant concerns about potential yield reductions. This uncertainty underscores the likely volatility in Romania’s wheat production.

Uncertain Outlook: The dry weather in April and May has introduced uncertainty in Romania’s wheat production. Analysts will likely revise their production figures in June if the dry weather persists.

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