Grain Markets Commentary
Afternoon Grains
Surprisingly strong corn trade today
For the Month of February: May corn down 37 cents, Dec corn down 23 cents, May soybeans down 87.5 cents, November soybeans down 60 cents, and May wheat down 36.25 cents.
Coming in after the Sunday night trade, expectations of a green day on the screen did not look likely. Corn contracts put in new lows overnight and wheat was almost double digits lower. Only soybeans were a penny or so higher at the morning pause. Then the export inspections report showed more corn inspected for shipment than expected (1.242 MMT vs average guess of 850K MT). This took the corn market positive and then some buying momentum moved corn 8 cents higher. KC wheat was a big gainer as well, up 11 cents, while Chicago wheat and soybeans were slightly higher on the day. Can we get follow up trade tomorrow? Many are looking for weather to become a factor but the US, despite being seasonally warm, is a long way from a scary situation and South America is in decent shape currently. So, this better than expected export inspections report could solidify the belief that the USDA will have to raise exports and likely ethanol usage on the current balance sheet. This could be the first lowering of the corn balance sheet since last summer. On a technical basis, May corn needs to trade through 435.50 and May soybeans through 1171.75 to turn market sentiment friendly. Tonight, watch 4.10 & 11.35 for support.